US Open final: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka is one win away from a US Open three-peat, but she must beat Elena Rybakina in Saturday's women's final.

The Belarusian, chasing her first Grand Slam title this year after losing to Rybakina in Australia, will certainly not lack motivation, having been displaced at the top of the WTA rankings by the second seed, who needed a comeback win to defeat home hope Coco Gauff in a thrilling semi-final.

Whenever Sabalenka plays as well as she did on Thursday, as Jessica Pegula noted after their semi-final, the outgoing No. 1 is almost unstoppable.

For so long, the two-time US Open champion's form was unrecognisable, highlighted by uncharacteristic losses following March's Sunshine Double in the United States.

This was followed by a run of no semi-final or final appearances at big tournaments — Grand Slams or WTA 1000s — in the lead-up to the final Slam of 2026, leaving observers to question the 28-year-old's prospects of becoming the first woman since Serena Williams (2012-2014) to claim three straight titles in New York.

Admittedly aided by a favourable draw at Queen's until the quarter-final, Sabalenka has blown away opponents who have stood in her way, showing the dominance that kept her atop the women's game for 99 consecutive weeks.

Even when another disappointing defeat looked to be on the cards in the quarter-final tussle with Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, the outgoing No. 1 dug deep to fight back from 4-2 down in the deciding set and claim the eventual 10-point tiebreak.

Having previously said she would happily lose the No. 1 ranking if it meant avoiding ending 2026 without a Grand Slam crown, Sabalenka now has a shot at getting one over Rybakina, who not only replaces her as the highest-ranked player on Monday but also denied her the Australian Open title in January. 

The Kazakh is a two-time Slam champion, but this experience is all new to the second seed and No. 1 in waiting, given the 12-time WTA champion's history at Flushing Meadows.

Rybakina had appeared in the main draw seven times but had advanced beyond the third round only once, underlining her average showing in New York.

Entering this year's tournament with a 57% win rate at the US Open, significantly inferior to her records in Australia (78%), Paris (71%) and Wimbledon (82%), the 27-year-old had to retire injured in the Cincinnati quarter-final on the eve of this final Major of 2026, a setback she did not need.

However, the second seed has gone on the unlikeliest of surges at Queen's, defeating former champion Naomi Osaka in the fourth round, a resurgent Qinwen Zheng in the quarters and Gauff in the second semi-final under the lights on Thursday, despite battling partisan support as the match neared its climax.

The Australian Open champion, in her typically unflappable manner, took it all in stride to beat the fourth seed 3-4, 6-4, 6-4, setting up a No. 1 vs No. 2 seed tussle in the title match, marking the first such occurrence in the women's draw in 13 years.

Arthur Ashe Stadium may have emptied rather swiftly after Rybakina deflated the one-sided support by beating the American star, but nobody will be leaving early if she usurps Sabalenka on Saturday. 

Rybakina and Sabalenka have faced each other 17 times on the WTA Tour, with the Belarusian leading their rivalry 10-7.

The outgoing No. 1 raced into a 4-0 lead between 2019 and 2023, including the Aussie Open decider three years ago, but the big-serving Rybakina has won seven of the next 13 meetings, the most recent of which inflicted back-to-back Australian Open final defeats on Sabalenka.

Although the four-time Grand Slam champion has got her revenge by winning the last two encounters in title matches during the Sunshine Swing, a third will taste even sweeter for the 24-time WTA champion, who seeks to end a year-long drought without a Major title.

Unsurprisingly, 10 of their 17 meetings have gone the distance, with the four-time Slam winner securing eight wins in their three-set matches, suggesting that Rybakina would prefer to get the job done in two sets.

Matches between Sabalenka and Rybakina are incredibly hard to call, given their fierce battles over the years and the second seed's recent successes over the past three years.

However, the displaced No. 1-ranked player has a lot more to lose on Saturday — failing to claim a Major in 2026 after losing her place as the top-ranked women's player — and that extra desire to secure a third consecutive win against the Kazakh star.

It really could go either way, but we are sticking our necks out for a Sabalenka win in three.

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