Kai Havertz stat perfectly explains why his injury scare is so concerning
Arsenal fans were really concerned when Kai Havertz limped off during Germany’s 1-1 draw with the Netherlands on Thursday night.
David Ornstein has since provided cautious optimism that the hamstring issue isn’t serious. That is welcome news, of course. But the panicky, frantic reaction from Arsenal fans on social media was entirely justified. And a stat from Opta Analyst explains exactly why.
Since Havertz’s Arsenal debut, the Premier League champions have a win rate of 72.7% when he plays. Without him, that drops to 52.4%. In 77 Premier League games with Havertz, Arsenal have won 56, drawn 12 and lost nine, averaging 2.3 points per game. In 42 games without him, they have won just 22, drawn 14 and lost six, averaging 1.9 points per game.
That is clearly a significant drop-off. The difference between 2.3 and 1.9 points per game over a full season is the difference between winning the title and finishing third.
Havertz is so important to Mikel Arteta’s side. The German has started all five league games, covering more ground than any other striker in the division. But the Arsenal manager may need to manage him more carefully.
He’s clearly not going to be able to stay fit all season, having just come off the back of two injury-ridden campaigns. This is exactly why Arsenal must act in January. That 20% difference in win rate when one player is missing suggests the squad clearly isn’t deep enough in attack to compete on all four fronts.
Arteta clearly isn’t sold on Viktor Gyokeres, and the stats show why. Mikel Merino’s goal involvement rate as a striker actually surpasses Gyokeres’, but neither is a genuine like-for-like replacement for what Havertz brings to this team.
The hope is that the scan results confirm the optimism Ornstein reported and Havertz is back for Leeds on October 10. But if he isn’t available, there couldn’t be a better fixture for Gyokeres to get his confidence back and get on the scoresheet, given his strong record against the Yorkshire side.