Italy vs Turkey - prediction, team news, lineups

By Jonathan O'Shea | 03 Oct 2026 07:40

Wrapping up a quickfire quartet of UEFA Nations League fixtures, Italy and Turkey will clash in Bologna on Monday evening.

Both teams trail behind the top two in League A Group 1, and following a big win for the Azzurri in Bursa, they must meet for a second time in the space of eight days. 

Three years after leaving La Nazionale for Saudi Arabia, Euro 2020 winner Roberto Mancini is back in charge of the Italian national team, and there are already some signs of progress.

Though his second spell began with a dismal home defeat against Belgium, a younger side then travelled to Turkey and produced an emphatic 4-1 win, with rising stars Pio Esposito and Michael Kayode among the scorers.

Italy came flying out of the blocks in Bursa, where they surged into a three-goal lead before the break, and that built some belief ahead of a Friday night showdown with France.

Mancini's men met Zinedine Zidane's side in Paris, relying on defensive grit and seven saves from inspired skipper Gianluigi Donnarumma to hold out for a draw, having equalised soon after falling behind.

Restored to the team in Turkey - after serving a ban for his red card in Italy's latest World Cup playoff disaster - Alessandro Bastoni surprisingly scored for the second straight game.

That result left the Azzurri in third place on four points, two behind Belgium and three adrift of Les Bleus. 

France are set to visit Milan next month, before Italy conclude their Group 1 campaign with a tough trip to Brussels, so they must seek maximum points on Monday.

Including a 3-0 win en route to Euros glory in 2021, the Italians have won three of their last four meetings with Turkey, so history is not on the visitors' side.

Neither is current form, as the Crescent-Stars are heading to Emilia-Romagna without a point on the board, leaving them rock bottom of Group 1 at the halfway stage. 

Following back-to-back promotions from the Nations League's third tier, Turkey recently made their debut at League A level, when they were beaten by France in Kocaeli.

Then came that heavy home loss to Italy, before Friday's 3-0 reverse in Belgium: the latter was a fifth defeat in six games for Vincenzo Montella's men, who made an early exit at this summer's World Cup. 

So, while Mancini has earned some praise, his former Sampdoria teammate is now under fire, with Montella's team facing a fight to survive in League A.

A potent striker in his playing days, Turkey's head coach scored three times for the Italian national side in 20 appearances, then made relatively little impact as a manager in Serie A. 

Now bound for Bologna, Montella will be in dire need of points at Stadio Dall'Ara, as another loss would surely make relegation inevitable.

After Mancini made just two changes to his Italy lineup on Friday, with Riccardo Calafiori and Moise Kean coming in for Mateo Ruggeri and the injured Giacomo Raspadori, more squad rotation could be on the cards.

It remains to be seen if Pio Esposito - who has scored at a rate of one goal every other game across 12 international appearances - starts alongside brother Sebastiano again. 

Napoli forward Antonio Vergara impressed as a second-half substitute on his debut, while Gianluca Scamacca and Kean can also compete with the Espositos for selection in the final third.  

After being benched against France, experienced players such as Nicolo Barella and Gianluca Mancini are among those who could come back into contention.

Meanwhile, Turkey must do without their most influential player, as Arda Guler was booked late on in Belgium and will now serve a one-match ban. Galatasaray striker Baris Alper Yilmaz is also suspended, so Montella has to reshuffle his front line.

The visitors were already missing two Italy-based stars, with Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz both injured. 

In Calhanoglu's absence, former Juventus defender Merih Demiral will captain the Crescent-Stars again.

Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Vergara, P. Esposito, Kean

Cakir; Kabak, Demiral, Celik; Kadioglu, Ozcan, Yuksek, Elmali; Akgun, Akturkoglu; Gul

After making a sluggish start to Group 1, Italy have since put in two strong performances, while Turkey are yet to even pick up a point.

Demoralised and depleted, another defeat could spell the end for Montella, who was spared the sack after an unsuccessful World Cup.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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