Villa Park needs a big statement from The Arsenal tonight

We’re around 36 hours (at the time of writing) away from the Transfer Window closing tomorrow evening, but thankfully for me, anyway, I’m less bothered about those goings-on and more bothered about what happens on the pitch tonight at Villa Park. We’re at match week two all but completed, and the two familiar faces that many thought would be up there fighting for the league have both confirmed their second victories in a row in the shape of Man City and Chelsea. So we have to follow suit this evening, methinks.

I watched bits of the Chelsea game and, whilst going forward they did look good to be fair, cutting Brighton open on several occasions, at the back they look shaky as heck, and if they are like that against us next weekend, I’d 100% back us to pick up the points. But there’s no doubt they have a wee bit of momentum after those wins, so The Arsenal need to build theirs this evening with a team that has been a bit of a thorn in our side in recent years. In the last four games, we’ve won two and lost two. If you use the COVID period as a line in the sand, it’s four wins for Villa versus three for us, and the defeat last season was in incredibly late and dramatic fashion.

For some reason, a bit like Newcastle fans, Villa seem to have an irrational hatred for us. Perhaps it is because we continue to insist that Unai Emery is not that great, whereas they point to his trophy haul in his career, having delivered the Europa League to Villa once again. But in tonight’s game, we see a Villa side who have had the bulk of their stars taken away from them. Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans, Donyell Malen, Emi Martinez, Lucas Digne, with Douglas Luiz and Jadon Sancho also returning from whence they came upon the expiry of their contracts. In return, we will find ourselves up against plenty of familiar names (as I went through yesterday), but not in a Villa shirt. And it is my hope that our consistency of team can therefore have the edge over the uncertainty of the Villa side, who are still working out their own automatisms. I will begrudgingly admit that Emery has done a good job with Villa; they finished in the Champions League places last season, they massively outperformed metrics like xG, and they have plenty of talent who can hurt us (Cash and Buendia both got the goals for them against us last season). The stats that day told of a fairly even game, with both teams sharing a roughly equal amount of possession, shots on and off target, fouls, corners, etc. But it was an Arsenal team who were makeshift at the back, with Gabriel and Saliba both out that day.

Tonight, we know that Saliba won’t play, so for me it’s time to give Konsa his debut. He’s a big boy, he’ll be well aware of the pantomime booing that will come his way. He’ll know that it is just part of the spectacle, but he’s a professional who was bought because of his experience and abilities, and so I say we have to chuck him in alongside Big Gabi. It’s harsh on Mosquera, who I thought did well against Coventry, but you don’t spend £50million on an experienced England international to see him not play in big games. And this is a big game. So for me I’d have the following as my line up this evening:

Raya

White – Konsa – Gabriel – Calafiori

MLS

Odegaard – Rice

Saka – Havertz – Tzolis

With Gabriel Martinelli due to be confirmed as departed the club any time soon, Tzolis is basically the defacto number one choice at left wing, but I wouldn’t be averse to seeing Eze there more too. I’ve also chosen Calafiori as the one I’d want in there because he has started the season really well, he seems to already be striking up a good rapport with Tzolis, taking up positions that enable them to find each other with regularity, so whilst we all love Hincapié, that feels like the right thing to do to kick off this game.

And the good news for Arteta is that he has so many options. Mosquera is a great cover for White or Konsa, Hincapie covers both Calafiori or Gabriel, whilst Zubimendi is an World Cup winner that could equally start instead of MLS. We don’t have 100% certainty over Bruno, but there’s no need to rush him back when you also have Eze and Merino available, whilst up top Viktor Gyokeres can be used in the second half if Kai isn’t working. And if Saka is to be protected, then Madueke is there too. We have such depth and I expect Arteta will certainly want to use it at some stage this evening.

Villa will look to press high and be compact in that midfield area of the pitch; Unai likes to leave a little more space with a higher line, so weirdly, if that happens, it’d be the kind of game that Big Vik might thrive on. But with Kai having scored two in two if you count the Community Shield, you can’t be dropping him. Maybe there are options in the second half, but the way the initial skirmishes go in this game, I’d expect Villa to try to go from back-to-front as quickly as possible as soon as there is a transition, looking to spring traps on us as we build up as we usually do through the likes of Odegaard. So we’ll need to be ready for that and I do think that’s why you have to start Konsa, because I think I read a stat/heard a stat that he was one of the most difficult people to get past last season – he’s a duel winner and therefore good with one-on-ones. If you’re coming up against a team who want to spring transitional traps, then you need individuals to win their battles. If he is that guy, if he does it in an Arsenal shirt, he’ll be a fan favourite. But he’ll also be very valuable in games like this.

It’s a game we lost last season, yet still won the league, so you can’t say that a defeat or a draw tonight is a massive problem for this Arsenal side, but given that last season we lost five games, the season before Liverpool lost four and the season before that Man City lost just three, it shows you that the Premier League is usually not won if you pick up a couple of defeats so early in the season. So tonight is one that we need to win and lay down a marker for the rest of the league. Last weekend’s 3-0 win was fun, but it was against a Coventry side who have already shown that they will struggle this season. So we need to be showing against a quality opponent that we are favourites for a reason.

I’ll be back tomorrow for a match review, maybe a word or two about those exiting players (Gabby’s Jesus and Martinelli), but for now, enjoy your bank holiday Monday (if you have one) and I’ll catch you all then.