Brighton’s bizarre xG trend could spell trouble for Arsenal on Saturday
Brighton have developed a rather unusual habit this season. Their matches are consistently turning into xG shootouts, and Arsenal may be walking into another one on Saturday afternoon.
The Gunners travel to the south coast to take on Fabian Hurzeler's high-flying Seagulls this weekend, with both sides looking to keep their excellent runs going. Having won three of their last four trips to the Amex, Arsenal will certainly be confident, but Brighton's maturing side will present Mikel Arteta's men with their most challenging proposition yet.
Hurzeler's team sit fifth in the Premier League table, having accumulated seven points from their first four outings. They thrashed Coventry City 5-0 on Sunday, showcasing the offensive quality they have at their disposal.
Arsenal will be favoured in pretty much every game they play this season, and there's no reason to think this encounter is any different. However, Brighton's high-octane style could spell trouble for the Gunners.
When taking a gander at the Premier League's underlying numbers, Brighton stand out for one reason. The Seagulls' matches have the highest total expected goals in them after four weeks of the season.
According to FotMob's data, the Seagulls have generated more non-penalty xG than any other side (9.4), while only three teams have conceded more xG than them - Fulham, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. Evidently, Brighton are a chaotic side who are both excellent going forward and incredibly vulnerable defensively.
Having witnessed Hurzeler's football for multiple years in the Premier League now, it seems this is by design. The German sets his team up to be incredibly aggressive in the press, and this creates a number of promising transition opportunities from high turnovers. However, when the press is breached, which it often is, the Seagulls' defenders regularly find themselves outnumbered as the opposition run at them.
The Chelsea and Leeds games were prime examples of this. In both matches, Hurzeler's outfit created and conceded several chances.
However, to describe Brighton's approach as merely being stereotypically German and 'pressy' would be oversimplifying what they do. The Seagulls have dominated possession in all four of their games this term. In fact, they have the highest average possession of any team so far this season - 70.9%, the next highest is Manchester City with 65.2%.
While they use turnovers to create their best goal-scoring opportunities, they spend the bulk of games possessing the ball without doing too much with it.
So far this season, Arsenal have faced an array of different sides with different tactical approaches:
The Gunners have yet to take on a team with Brighton's unique possession-oriented, high-press blend of styles. How this pans out will be interesting, but this approach could prove to be Arsenal's kryptonite.
Arsenal are obsessed with control and making games low-event. Brighton will try to make the game chaotic and high-event. While the Gunners might have the superior players to overcome this tactically, it'll certainly take them some time to get used to Hurzeler's approach.
Even if Arteta's men are off it in the opening 25 or 30 minutes, this could be enough to see them drop points.
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