Arsenal need to be ‘Always on’ against Sunderland
If last season taught us anything, it’s that Sunderland are a side not to be taken lightly. That 2-2 up at the Stadium of light come over my birthday weekend in November, I was up in the North East, funnily enough, but on the black and white side, and Arsenal were gut-punched late on to a Brobbey goal that came from a throw-in set piece that we didn’t deal with in injury time.
It was a cautionary tale of the ‘always on’ mentality needed in the Premier League.
Sunderland were superb at home last season. It is the reason they are playing in Europe in midweek next week. They drew with us, Villa, United and City, and they beat The Scum (although that was less of a ‘feat’ last season), and they showed that with the right coaching, shape and structure, a newly promoted team can easily avoid relegation if they have the right signings in place as well. Granit Xhaka was a key one in that respect, and tonight we’ll face up against him for the second time, having missed him at the Emirates last season. He is a fighter; we all know that, and the vision of him standing over Merino and having a go at him still sticks in my mind. He will be all smiles and hugs before the game, but the second that he crosses that white line, he will view us as the enemy, and those Arsenal players will need to treat him as such as well.
I don’t think it will be that hard, though; there aren’t actually many players left from the last time Xhaka played for The Arsenal. That day was a 5-0 win in which he got two goals, but the squad that day only now has White, Ødegaard and Saka in it; such has been the renewal of Arteta’s Arsenal since the Swiss left. There will still be smiles and a happy reunion with the manager, and I enjoyed his interview with the Premier League ahead of this one. His is a story with a great redemption arc, and as fans we love to see that kind of stuff.
So then, to the football, and what sort of game we’re going to get from Sunderland today. With only three Premier League data points to draw upon, and all against what you would call ‘mid-table’ opposition or worse, it is difficult to say with any certainty how Regis Le Bris will line his side up. I saw an interesting stat today from Opta that since the start of last season, Sunderland have played the most forward passes in the whole league. They are a direct side, who want to go forward quickly, and the ‘zones of control’ on this page show that they are more left-sided dominant than anywhere else. On that side they have Nelson Angulo, but they also have the new guy Fofana, who was rumoured to be with us on deadline day, so I wonder if those two might share minutes today, as Le Bris tries to keep his side fresh for Alkmaar in midweek next week.
Opta has them lining up in a 4-2-3-1, and I think most of the pundits are suggesting that, but I suspect it will be a similar approach to last season. That means I think they’ll look to go a little longer, but in our defensive third, it’ll be Enzo Le Fee and Brobbey who will be looking to win those battles. Brobbey showed at the Emirates that he’s a big, strong, powerful guy, so perhaps aerial duels might be something that Gabriel and Konsa need to be mindful of.
In terms of the data, it’s tough because, as mentioned already, the sample size is small, but from what we have seen so far, Sunderland are down there in terms of goals scored (three), their xG is around mid-table (4.40), they’re about mid-table on the total number of shots and shots on target, possession, passing numbers, the lot. They sit towards the top of the league on through balls, which rings true with their forward passing metrics that I saw from Opta; if they’re getting on the ball in the middle third, they’re going to try to put Brobbey in.
Defensively, they are up there with us in terms of xG conceded, sort of, because we’re miles in front of anyone in terms of how miserly we are in front of goal. But they’ve shown that they have a decent shape about them so far, so we will need to be better in front of goal than we were against Napoli, I reckon. I suspect we won’t get as many clear-cut chances as we did in Naples on Wednesday.
So how do we beat them?
Well, for me, a lot of what is good about us so far is via Martin Odegaard, so he surely feels like the guy we need to get on the ball. It’s funny because when you look at our stats on Opta, we are dominant on both left and right sides of the pitch. I looked at that map on that page and assumed it would show us right-side bias, but we’ve been mixing it up with Tzolis in there, as last weekend against Chelsea, where our second goal came from, attests. If Sunderland are left-side biased, and we are right-side biased, it does feel like whoever wins that battle will be the eventual victors.
So in terms of team set-up, I suspect Arteta goes back to the side that succeeded against Chelsea:
Raya
White – Konsa – Gabriel – Calafiori
MLS
Odegaard – Rice
Saka – Havertz – Tzolis
Maybe he has a think about Bruno for Myles, which is certainly something I’d be thinking about, given how he’ll get a hostile reception, and it’s the type of game I suspect he thrives on. But I just have a feeling that Arteta puts his faith in Myles once more, with rotation happening in the second half. That team has shown it can get goals, and with the slightly rotated side in midweek not exactly putting a decent-but-not-great Napoli side to the sword, I think Arteta reverts to what I think we’d all call the ‘first XI’ based on form and availability right now.
I often find myself saying “start early” in these preview blogs, but I don’t think we have to today. We can feel our way into the game. If we can limit Sunderland’s opportunities in attack, it’ll keep the home fans quiet, which will be absolutely fine by me, you and any Arsenal fan tuning in or in the stadium. But we need to be ready for direct football and a Sunderland side who will fancy a scalp under the lights.
Right, I’m off to go and see a bunch of old Spitfires perform at Duxford, so I’ll bid you all a fine farewell. Let’s hope Everton can make this a hilarious afternoon at The Scum Stadium, before we kick off in the North East. Ciao.