Arsenal may be poised for late-season surge as Man City’s fast start is clearly unsustainable
After five games, Arsenal trail Manchester City by three points at the top of the Premier League.
Some people have swiftly switched from thinking Arsenal were going to ‘walk it’ to actually thinking City are going to do it. That sort of talk feels very premature, whichever side of the argument you fall.
City have won all five of their opening games, yes, but has it really been smooth sailing for Enzo Maresca’s side? The data suggests their early-season position flatters them, and history suggests it might not last.
Evidence suggests Manchester City’s start might not be sustainable
After five Premier League games, Arsenal lead the expected goals table. Arsenal’s xG return suggests they have been about two points luckier than their performances have warranted, whereas City’s return suggests they have been six points luckier than theirs. In other words, purely based on the quality of chances both teams are creating and conceding, City should be trailing Arsenal.
And despite Arsenal’s deserved thumping at Brighton, the eye test backs that up. City trailed Bournemouth 1-0 at home for most of their opening game before Marc Guehi equalised in the 84th minute and Josko Gvardiol won it in stoppage time.
Against newly-promoted Coventry, they conceded 1.37 xG and 12 shots in a narrow 1-0 win. Arsenal, by comparison, dispatched the same Coventry side 3-0, conceding just four shots and 0.20 xG.
In a highly entertaining game against Sunderland at the weekend, City conceded a staggering 3.57 xG, while generating 2.82 — yet won 5-3.
City have also had a few significant refereeing decisions fall their way. Most notably, in the Manchester Derby, Erling Haaland’s goal should have been ruled out after Enzo Fernandez made a play for the ball in an offside position. Then, against Sunderland, Elliot Anderson escaped a clear handball penalty in the box at a time when City led 3-2.
Of course, refereeing decisions and late winners are part of football. But a title-winning side needs to be built on more than luck. Arne Slot’s Liverpool made a habit of winning late in the early stages of last season before results began to regress. Some have pointed to City’s start having a similar feel.
History tells us Enzo Maresca sides start well and finish poorly
At Leicester in 2023-24 — Maresca’s first managerial role in England — the Italian’s side won a remarkable 13 of their first 14 games. After 32 games, they had won 25, losing just four. Then they lost seven of their final 14, a collapse which almost cost them the Championship title and saw them pip it by one point.
In his first season at Chelsea, Maresca won 10 of his first 16 games, losing just twice. He then oversaw six defeats in the next 13, effectively ending any title hopes. His second Chelsea season followed a similar trend — seven wins from his first 12, a 1-1 draw at Arsenal that had fans believing they were in a title race, then just one win from the following six before his departure in January.
There’s a clear pattern there. Maresca sides start strongly, but tend to finish poorly. That surely bodes well for Mikel Arteta, who, despite outdated “bottler” narratives, actually finishes seasons really strongly.
In 2023-24, Arsenal dropped points in just two of their final 18 games, in an incredible run that was still not enough to pip Pep Guardiola’s side to the title.
The following season, injury-ravaged as it was, Arsenal lost just two of their final 28 games, though too many draws prevented them from ever really pushing Liverpool to the title.
And last season, after a wobble in April where they suffered back-to-back defeats to Bournemouth and City, Arsenal won their final five games to claim the title. Generally speaking, in the run-in, Arteta’s side deliver.
City may be three points clear, but the xG table suggests they shouldn’t be. Maresca’s structural flaws may inevitably catch up to him over the gruelling winter period, whereas Arsenal’s proven defensive solidity could see them surge and take control of the title race.