Arsenal feel the squeeze as Man City pull clear and Brighton close in

Arsenal’s first Premier League defeat of the season has suddenly made the picture at the top of the table considerably tighter.

The Gunners went into the weekend level with Manchester City after winning their opening four league matches, but Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at Brighton gave City the opportunity to take advantage.

Manchester City subsequently beat Sunderland 5-3 on Sunday to maintain their perfect start, leaving them top of the Premier League with 15 points from five matches. Arsenal remain second on 12 points, while Brighton’s victory over Mikel Arteta’s side has taken them onto 10 points in third.

That means Arsenal now find themselves three points behind City, with Brighton only two points further back.

Arsenal lose their early breathing space

Five games into a 38-match season, nobody at Arsenal will be panicking about a three-point deficit.

However, the Brighton defeat has changed the early complexion of the title race. Arsenal had made a perfect start before travelling to the Amex, but one poor afternoon has allowed City to establish the first meaningful gap between the two sides this season.

Brighton’s position is also worth noting. Fabian Hurzeler’s side are now just two points behind the Gunners following an emphatic victory over the defending champions.

The immediate priority for Arteta will therefore be ensuring Arsenal respond strongly after the international break rather than allowing one defeat to develop into a difficult run.

Opta still has Arsenal narrowly ahead

Interestingly, the statistical outlook remains extremely close.

According to Opta Analyst’s Premier League prediction model, Arsenal currently have a 43.52% chance of winning the title, marginally ahead of Manchester City on 40.96%, while Brighton are given a 3.90% chance.

Opta’s predicted points totals underline just how tight the model considers the contest between Arsenal and Man City. Arsenal are projected to finish with 76.06 points, compared with 75.64 for City.

Those numbers will inevitably change considerably as the season develops, but they provide an interesting counterpoint to the current league table.

City have the advantage right now, while Brighton have suddenly moved onto Arsenal’s shoulder. For the Gunners, the response to their first setback could prove much more important than the setback itself.

What do you think, Gooners? Are you concerned by City opening up a three-point lead, or is it far too early to pay much attention to the table? Let us know in the comments below.

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