Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula- US Open prediction, form, head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka can book a place in the US Open women’s final for a fourth consecutive occasion with a victory on Thursday over Jessica Pegula.

In the last eight, the reigning two-time champion of this event won a three-set thriller over Linda Noskova 7-6 (7-1) 3-6 7-6 (10-7), while Pegula came from behind to defeat Emma Navarro, 3-6 6-4 6-3.

Despite a swift challenge from Noskova in her last match, Aryna Sabalenka showed plenty of character in the clutch to keep her quest for a US Open three-peat intact.

The Belarusian star lost her first set of the tournament but captured 45 receiving points overall to reach the final four.

She has won over 70% of her first serves in four of her five matches at Flushing Meadows and has registered a combined 13 double faults at the tournament this year.

A defeat on Thursday would mark the first time she ends a year without a Grand Slam singles title since 2022.

Thursday will also mark her 15th appearance in the semi-finals of a major singles tournament and the Belarusian has advanced in seven of those last eight instances.

Sabalenka has won her last seven Grand Slam singles semi-final affairs on the hard court, coming from a set down at this stage of the 2025 US Open to defeat Jessica Pegula.

She started slowly for a second time in three matches but in the end Jessica Pegula came on strong when needed to advance.

In two of her last three US Open singles outings, she has dropped the first set and gone on to win, collecting 53 receiving points in her quarter-final affair.

As a result, the 32-year-old American is through to her third straight US Open semi-final, with her upcoming opponent eliminating her in each of the last two editions of this tournament.

On Thursday she could defeat Sablenka at a Grand Slam singles event for the first time and end a three-match losing run in the semi-finals of a major tournament.

At the US Open this year, she has converted 23 break points in her five matches while winning over 70% of her first serves on three occasions.

Pegula has won just one of her last five sets in the semi-finals of a Grand Slam singles tournament with her only final four victory at a major tournament occurring after losing the opening set in 2024.

First round: vs. Camila Osorio 6-2 6-4

Second round: vs. Polina Iatcenko 6-1 6-1

Third round: vs. Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Taylor Townsend 6-4 6-3

Quarter-final: vs. Linda Noskova 7-6 (7-1) 3-6 7-6 (10-7)

First round: vs. Elena-Gabriele Ruse 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 1-6 6-4 6-3

Round of 16: vs. Sorana Cirstea 6-3 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Emma Navarro 3-6 6-4 6-3

Cincinnati Open (2020) - Round of 16: Pegula wins 6-2 2-6 6-3

French Open (2020) - First Round: Sabalenka wins 6-3 6-1

Madrid Open (2021) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-2

Italian Open (2022) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-4

WTA Finals (2022) - First Round: Sabalenka wins 6-3 7-5

WTA Finals (2023) - First Round: Pegula wins 6-4 6-3

Cincinnati Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka wins 6-3 7-5

US Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka wins 7-5 7-5

Miami Open (2025) - Final: Sabalenka wins 7-5 6-2 

US Open (2025) - Semi-finals: Sabalenka wins 4-6 6-3 6-4

Wuhan Open (2025) - Semi-finals: Pegula wins 2-6 6-4 7-6

WTA Finals (2025) - First round: Sabalenka wins 6-4 2-6 6-3 

Berlin Open (2026) - Semi-finals: Pegula wins 6-4 6-7 (4-7) 6-0

When these ladies first squared off six years ago, Pegula overcame a resilient Sabalenka thanks to her five break points with only two double faults.

Sabalenka avenged that loss at Roland Garros by winning 71% of her second serves and converting six break point opportunities.

The Belarusian took the overall lead against her in Madrid the following year, registering eight aces while winning 86% of her first serves.

A year later, it was Sabalenka’s turn to prevail again, hitting nine aces while failing to concede one versus Pegula.

The American got back in the win column against Sabalenka at the 2023 WTA Finals, winning 81% of her first serves and converting five break points.

In 2024, Sabalenka bested Pegula to capture the 2024 Cincinnati Open, thanks to her 10 aces while winning 91% of her first serves.

At Flushing Meadows two years ago, it was Sabalenka who emerged victorious thanks to her six break points converted on the day.

Sabalenka did it the hard way when these two met in the US Open semi-finals in 2025, coming from a set down to win, registering eight aces along the way.

Pegula earned a rare victory over Sabalenka at the Wuhan Open that year by winning 56% of her second serves, while her opponent posted just 23% in that department.

A strong third set in Berlin enabled Pegula to prevail over her again this year, as the American registered just one double fault on that occasion.

We don’t doubt that this will be a back-and-forth contest, but in the end Sabalenka always seems to bring her best in the big moments of major tournaments, and we believe her best will be enough to squeak by Pegula on Thursday.

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