Opta supercomputer rates Arsenal’s chances of winning the Champions League this season
Arsenal head to Naples on Wednesday night to begin their Champions League campaign.
A trip to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Massimiliano Allegri’s Napoli is a tough opener on paper. But it’s one Arsenal will approach with confidence after a perfect start to their Premier League title defence.
Last season, Arsenal went further in the Champions League than at any point in the modern era, finishing top of the league phase with a perfect eight wins from eight, before losing to PSG in the final on penalties. Mikel Arteta’s team will no doubt be determined to go one better this season.
And according to Opta Analyst, Arsenal are the most likely side to do exactly that.
Opta supercomputer projects Arsenal as favourites to win the Champions League
According to Opta’s supercomputer projections, more than one in five simulations (20.9%) end with Arsenal lifting the Champions League trophy. That makes them the outright favourites, ahead of Bayern Munich (19.4%), Manchester City (12.3%), Barcelona (8.2%) and, curiously, back-to-back champions PSG (7.1%) in fifth.
Arsenal are also ranked as the strongest team in the world right now according to Opta’s Power Rankings, which is why, despite having a tougher league phase schedule than last season, they are still the competition favourites. They are given a 93.8% chance of progressing from the league phase — almost certain.
The one caveat is that Arsenal have a slightly lower chance of topping the league phase than Bayern — 18.8% versus Bayern’s 19.4% — partly because they face the German champions away from home. That’s one to look forward to on October 21.
The Gunners are widely viewed as favourites to win the Premier League, in what would be the first time they have retained the title in over 90 years. But in the Champions League, some — including their own fans — are sceptical.
The goal of the transfer window was to bring in more superstar quality in attack, but that obviously didn’t happen. However, if Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz can stay fit and maintain their current form, Arsenal might not have needed that level of signing after all.
